Risk assessment
Decision-makers invariably take account of 'risk' in reaching a conclusion. For some decisions, risks are simple to identify and simple to assess. However, when considering policy option decisions in food safety, land use or environmental health, assessing the risks is challenging, and sophisticated approaches are required. Decision makers have to be aware of the nature and scale of the risk, the possible frequency, and a view on what level of 'uncertainty' surrounds the scientific data. Research at CSL is successfully producing evidence-based risk assessment tools that can be employed across a variety of scientific fields to help improve the quality of decisions made.
The majority of risk assessments are based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods:
Probabilistic - A mathematical distribution used to indicate the likelihood of an event taking place.
Quantitative - An objective measurement (heavily dependent on mathematical and statistical modelling) of the frequency and magnitude of possible adverse effects.
Qualitative - An expression of the degree of risk (high or low) based on simple calculations and expert judgement.
Uncertainty - An assessment of how sure we are that the scientific evidence used in assessing risks reflects the true position.
We are using these risk assessment methods to explore issues such as pesticides in the environment, and dietary exposure to food contaminants.